Falling Prices, Low Rates Prod California Homebuyers

Favorable home prices, record-low interest rates, and the belief that rates will rise in the near future were the primary motivators leading home buyers to purchase, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2009 Survey of California Home Buyers”.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

· Sixty-eight percent of buyers said price decreases motivated them to buy a home, while 39 percent reported low interest rates helped them move to a better location. Twenty-three percent claimed the likelihood that rates will move up as the motivating factor.

· Housing affordability has improved dramatically in response to the decline in home prices along with historically low mortgage rates, creating a tremendous opportunity for home buyers in California. Home sales in California rebounded in 2008 and early 2009, reflecting the combination of favorable prices, low mortgage rates, and home buyer tax credits, fueled primarily by sales of distressed properties that accounted for more than half of the state’s transactions.

· Forty-nine percent of all buyers purchased a home through a traditional market sale, while 38 percent purchased a REO/bank-owned property, according to the survey. Reflecting the difficulty in closing short sales–properties selling for less than the loan amount–only 13 percent of buyers purchased a short-sale property.

· Home buyers who purchased a REO or bank-owned property experienced the highest level of difficulty in obtaining financing, compared with a more traditional transaction. They rated the level of difficulty as 8.9 (on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 representing the greatest level of difficulty in obtaining financing) compared with a 7.7 for home buyers with a traditional market sale and 7.6 for short-sale home buyers.

Searching For A Bottom In The Housing Market

With consumer confidence rising in May to its highest level in eight months, housing starts increasing more than 17 percent in May compared with the previous month, and sales of existing homes climbing 2.9 percent in April nationwide, it appears that the housing market may be stabilizing.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

· Although sales of existing, single-family homes rose 35.2 percent in May in California , compared with a year ago, the median price declined 30.4 percent. Some industry analysts predict that as specialized adjustable-rate mortgages, known as option ARMS and Alt-A mortgages, reset over the next 18 to 24 months, prices could decline further before stabilizing.

“We are seeing strong buying activity, particularly in those boom and bust markets, where prices have declined significantly. Buyers are coming in and fighting over properties – there is multiple bidding in California and Florida,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

Sales of existing homes are soaring as many investors and first-time buyers purchase distressed properties. Yun estimates that about 50 percent of current sales involve distressed properties, and
he expects the trend to continue as foreclosures rise in the months
ahead.

Although some economists predict home prices will continue to decline in the coming months, California’s median home price rose
for the third consecutive month in May, posting the largest month increase on record for the month of May.

Some buyers are trying to time the bottom of the market and purchase once it appears that prices are consistently and steadily rising. Many housing forecasters advise against this approach as buyers should not view their homes solely as investment opportunities. Historically, the average annual rate of return on a home lived in for five years or more is nearly 12 percent, based on data C.A.R. has collected over the last 40 years.

May home sales increased 35.2 percent, price declined 30.4 percent

Home sales increased 35.2 percent in May in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home declined 30.4 percent, C.A.R. reported last week. “With affordability for first-time buyers at a record high, sales of existing, single-family homes continued to remain above the 500,000 level for the ninth consecutive month,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “Buyers are beginning to realize that the combination of favorable home prices, historically low mortgage rates, and first-time home buyer tax credits, may not align again for many years.

“The sales gains over last year have diminished in recent months,” he added. “This trend is expected to continue through the end of the year, as limited inventory at the moderate and low end of the market constrains sales activity,” he said.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 556,590 in May at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Statewide home resale activity increased 35.2 percent from the revised 411,770 sales pace recorded in May 2008. Sales in May 2009 increased 2.9 percent compared with the previous month.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during May 2009 was $267,570, a 30.4 percent decrease from the revised $384,540 median for May 2008, C.A.R. reported. The May 2009 median price rose 4.2 percent compared with April’s $256,700 median price.